Conducting Kosi River Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (Package 2), (Emergency Flood Damaged Rehabilitation Project (EFDRP), Part E Institutional Strengthening of DWIDP for Disaster Risk Reduction)

Project Description

Floods and landslides are the causes of about 300 deaths each year in Nepal with property damage exceeding USD 10 Million in an average. Compared to other disasters in Nepal, floods and landslides are the number one natural disaster regarding economic damages, and number two in loss of lives (epidemics being number one). At present, no operational flood forecasting system exists in Nepal despite the urgency for flood management plans for which accurate flood forecasting is the basis.
As stated earlier floods are common in Nepal during monsoon, but the Koshi Flood of 2008 was unique in terms of its magnitude and the extent of devastation it created. The flood magnitude was less than the long-term average monsoon flood, however the damage it created in Sunsari District was historical. Similarly the Far-Western District of Kailali and Kanchanpur were also hardly hit by the 2008 flood. Asian development Bank (ADB) estimates the total loss to be $88 million and the affected population to be 300000 in these three districts. Direct losses to assets and output because of flooding amount to $30 million, indirect losses are estimated at $58 million. Hence to restore economic activities quickly, mainly in the three districts; Sunsari, Kailali and Kanchanpur and to improve the livelihoods of about 300,000 people seriously affected by the 2008 floods, the ADB signed an agreement: Emergency Flood Damage Rehabilitation Project with the Government of Nepal; the project aims to contribute to sustainable economic growth by minimizing the devastating impact of the floods and reduce future risk from similar disasters. Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System will support in realizing the objectives of the project as a non-infrastructure measure in mitigating flood disasters. The project aims to enhance cost-effective construction specifications of rehabilitated infrastructure, and supporting capacity building and the Government’s disaster preparedness.
The Consultants main objective is to design an operational Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in Koshi River Basin for the area downstream of Chatara (Sunsari) in fulfilment with the following major objectives of the Study.
• Assessment of flood risk and determination of flood danger level
• Optimization of hydrological and meteorological data observation network including glaciers and glacial lakes monitoring network
• Development of a telemetric system for real time data transmission from stations
• Development of weather forecasting and flood forecasting model based on real time hydro-meteorological data
• Development of flood warning mechanism for dissemination of flood forecast.
• Institutionalization of flood early warning system

Assignment Description

The main activities carried out by consultant are as follows: • Review the reports, literatures and publications on flood risk study and identify with the available literature the endangered settlements, towns, agricultural infrastructure and roads / bridges to focus flood warnings to specific locations. • Prepare an inventory of existing hydrological and meteorological stations on the area • Evaluate the adequacy of existing network for flood early warning and propose revised network • Visit all hydrological and meteorological stations including snow and glacier monitoring stations on the area • Prepare an inventory of equipment installed at each station • Assess the condition of equipment and upgrading required for telemetry • Assess the availability of means of communication (PSTN, CDMA, GSM) • Assess the availability of power supply • Select and recommend the stations for telemetry considering accessibility of station, availability of communication, necessity for flood forecasting, physiographic heterogeneity etc • Design and recommend the type of sensors, data logger and communication system at each selected station • Prepare technical specification of recommended system • Analyze the most recent information and recommend suitable model for quantitative precipitation forecast • Review the reports, literatures and publications on numerical weather prediction models and flood forecasting models and recommend a suitable model for Koshi Basin • Review the reports, literatures and publications on early warning mechanism and recommend an effective and efficient early warning mechanism for Koshi Basin • Prepare cost estimate of the system • Prepare and submit a report comprising all above mentioned things.